Coalition Compass
See where renewable ambitions align.
The Coalition Compass by Renewable Strategies provides a clear view of which political coalitions emerging after the elections can deliver progress on renewable policy. By combining insights from party programmes and parliamentary behavior, the tool highlights areas of alignment and potential friction across parties.
Preliminary results show 15 parties winning seats in the 150-member Parliament. The final results will be announced by the Electoral Council on Friday, November 7 at 10:00 AM.
Based on the election results and the announced exclusions between parties, several formations remain within reach. Below are three potential coalitions that could form a governing majority.
D66 • VVD • GL-PvdA • CDA
A progressive centrist coalition combining economic realism with strong climate ambition. With a broad majority of 86 seats in Parliament and 35 seats in the Senate (three short of a majority), this formation offers a stable foundation for effective governance. It could advance policies on climate, energy, and the economy; though success in the Senate would depend on cooperation with smaller factions to secure final legislative approval. This would require the VVD to lift its initial objection of a government together with GL-PvdA.
Party leaders of D66, VVD, and CDA all have a strong energy profile:
- Rob Jetten (Prime Minister-designate, D66) was minister for Climate and Energy in 2022-2024;
- Dilan Yeşilgöz (VVD) was state secretary for Climate and Energy in 2021-2022;
- Henri Bontenbal (CDA) previously worked as a strategic energy advisor in politics and for grid operator Stedin.
Following Frans Timmermans‘ (party leader GL-PvdA) resignation, it is yet unclear who will succeed him.
Based on the published Election Manifesto’s, the following elements can already be identified:
- Energy & Climate: All support EU climate framework and RED3; GL-PvdA/D66 push for ambitious CO₂ reductions (up to 65% by 2030), VVD/CDA emphasize affordability, supply security, and technology diversity (nuclear, green gas, hydrogen).
- Clean Transport & Fuels: Shared goal of cleaner transport; VVD/CDA prioritize circularity, affordability, synthetic fuels, while GL-PvdA/D66 favor regulatory incentives for clean shipping, EVs, and sustainable biofuels.
- Hydrogen & Electrification: All parties back hydrogen infrastructure and industrial integration; VVD/CDA/D66 focus on hydrogen backbone scale-up; GL-PvdA adds social/regional dimensions (North Sea Pact, Groningen hub); strong consensus on grid expansion, offshore wind, and affordable EV adoption by 2030.
- Biogas, bioLNG & Green Gas: CDA/VVD lead on green gas and biogas, linking agriculture to energy transition. D66/GL-PvdA did not support a call to allow mass balance for bio-LNG in RED3.
Note: The above is no guarantee. Parties rarely spell out all their policy positions in manifestos, leaving room for negotiation and compromise during coalition talks.
D66 • VVD • CDA • JA21 • BBB
A broad centrist coalition with a strong emphasis on economic growth, innovation, and competitiveness. With a majority of 79 seats in Parliament and 37 seats in the Senate (just one short of a majority), it provides a stable foundation for governing. The coalition would likely prioritize a balanced energy transition, fiscal responsibility, and policies that connect regional and urban economies through a pragmatic and solutions-driven approach. This would require D66 to shift from its preference for a centre-left coalition toward a centre-right coalition.
Replacing GL-PvdA with JA21 and BBB would shift the focus from progressive climate and social policies toward a more centrist-conservative agenda, emphasizing economic pragmatism, affordability, and regional interests over rapid green transition measures.
Based on the published Election Manifesto’s, the following elements can already be identified:
- Energy & Climate: JA21 and BBB oppose premature fossil phase-outs, arguing that alternatives must first be reliable and affordable; they support proven technologies such as biodiesel, synthetic fuels, hydrogen, and decentralized biogas as part of a gradual, technology-neutral transition.
- Sustainable Transport & Fuels: JA21 and BBB favor cleaner fuels like SAF, biodiesel, and hydrogen but reject mandatory electrification and zero-emission zones, viewing regulatory compulsion as economically damaging and technologically premature.
- Hydrogen & Biogas: BBB emphasizes rural innovation through biogas, manure-based circular fertilizers, and heat recovery, while JA21 supports industrial pilots in hydrogen and SAF but insists on cost-effective, realistic implementation without overregulation.
Note: The above is no guarantee. Parties rarely spell out all their policy positions in manifestos, leaving room for negotiation and compromise during coalition talks.
D66 • VVD • CDA • JA21 • CU
A constructive centrist coalition would unite liberal, conservative, and Christian-democratic traditions around pragmatic climate policy, economic stability, and social cohesion. With a majority of 78 seats in Parliament and 27 seats in the Senate (11 short of a majority). This coalition option has the disadvantage of requiring significantly more cross-party support in the Senate to pass legislation.
Replacing BBB with CU would shift the coalition from rural pragmatism to social and ethical emphasis.
Based on the published Election Manifesto’s, the following elements can already be identified:
- Energy & Climate: CU advocates for climate policies that protect ecosystems, fisheries, and local communities.
- Green Hydrogen: CU promotes production and use of green hydrogen, particularly for freight and heavy road transport, to cut emissions.
- Biomass Use: CU wants to focus biomass on high-value applications such as aviation fuel blending and green gas supply.
- Implementation Realism: CU emphasizes that setting climate targets is easier than achieving them, calling for practical, resilient implementation.
Note: The above is no guarantee. Parties rarely spell out all their policy positions in manifestos, leaving room for negotiation and compromise during coalition talks.